Betting Systems at BetForReal.com

NBA and Basketball Betting Systems

NBA betting systems can also be applied to collegiate basketball games or to other basketball leagues.

A popular NBA betting system is called the Christmas System, as the teams are given the chance to play around 25 games (to get a feel of how teams will fare for the remainder of the season) or just right before Christmas. This system reportedly won 60% last season.

To use the Christmas System, you take the winning percentage of each NBA team, which can easily found online (ESPN.com, YAHOO Sports, your favorite bookie, etc) or in any newspaper, and subtract the lower winning percentage from the higher percentage.

For example, if the LA Lakers have a winning percentage of .750 and the Golden State Warriors have a winning percentage of .450, the difference is.300.

Then, divide the difference by 20 (dropping the decimal). In this case, divide 300 by 20 for a quotient of 15. This gives us a rough line of 15 points on a Lakers game.

Next, allow three points to the home team, so LA would be -12 on the road or -18 if the Lakers are at home.

Visit your favorite book maker and check the point spread. Subtract the point spread from the favored team and if the difference is 10 or greater, you would have a play.

For example, if the point spread for the Lakers shows that they are favored by 2.0 points or less, or were the underdog on the road, they would be a play, as 12 - 2 = 10. If LA were at home, they could be favored by as much as 8 points to be a play, as 18 - 8 = 10.

If the Lakers were favored by three or more on the road, or nine or more at home, there would be no play, as the difference is less than 10 points.

Hold your wallets (or credit cards)! Here are several qualifiers for this system:

  • the team cannot be in the second of back-to-back games
  • the team cannot have an injured starter
  • no games with a point spread of 10 or more points is considered

Here's another example:

Let's say the Cleveland Cavaliers have a winning percentage of .800 and the NY Knicks have a winning percentage of .400, the difference is 400, which would make the Cavaliers a 20-point favorite. Cleveland would then be favored by 23 points at home and 17 points on the road.

The Cavaliers would be a play at home if it was favored by 9.5 points or less, and would be a play on the road if it was favored by 7.5 points or less.

Taking the Underdog

Using this system, the underdog can go from a negative situation to a positive based on the line.

For example, if the Chicago Bulls have a winning percentage of .400 and the Sacramento Kings have a winning percentage of .320, the Bulls would be rough favorites of four points.

If the Bulls are at home against the Kings, they are favored by seven (-7) while on the road they are favored by one (-1). From Sacramento's point of view, they are seven-point underdogs agains the bulls on the road (+7), while the Kings are one-point underdogs (+1) at home.

When you factor in the point spread, the Kings can be the favorite and has a potential of being a play.

If the Bulls are favored by 8 to 9.5 points at home, the Kings would be the play, as they go from +7 to -1. Remember, we only look at games where the point spread is 10 points or less.

If the Bulls are favored by 2 to 9.5 points on the road, the Kings would again be the play, as they will go from +1 to -1 or greater.